SILVER AT NEW HIGH !!!! ANTICIPATED & HAPPENED

Our last update predicted silver to rally & make a new high after it gave a breakout of a traingular formation. Silver has breached its previous high & confirmed a new high.
Thats how swift & precise moves are given when a traingle is broken on any commodity chart. Last leg rallies in commodities are always extended.
People who were trying to short silver, anticipating it to top out, have been eventually helping prices rally more everytime they got stopped out.
Rupee Apreciation restricted prices in MCX levels to rally more, but have still managed to surpass 32500, much more above our targets.

A fresh buy here is definitely not advisable.Go short only on some signs of reversals. Silver prices should take some break here from its one sided rally and correct a bit. A break of the rising trendline should confirm a start of the correction.

SILVER !!!!! POISED FOR AN NEW HIGH ?

Silver (COMEX) has given a bullish breakout from a triangular consolidation.
RSI and MACD is also giving a conformation of this breakout.
Silver could very well test its previous highs of 20.4$.
In MCX levels the targets are 31500/31900.
A break below 17.3$ in Silver COMEX would negate this Bullish view on Silver.

How News Could be Deceptive for Trading.....(CRUDE)

News could always be deceptive for a Technical Analyst, who makes decision only based on his charts.

Above is a 15 min chart of Crude. What can clearly be seen is a Triangle Pattern with a break on the upside.
It also has a classic trendline retest. The target according to this triangle breakout is 79.20$
So all I knew was that Crude should take support at 76 & move towards achieving its target of 79.20$

Now comes the interesting part
Every Wednesday Energy Information Administration comes out with Crude inventory data at 8.00 p.m IST.
Its a high Drama event and traders wait as Data comes out because Crude moves like anything before & after this Data is public.

At 8.00 p.m. today Data for Crude Inventory was out as ==> ACTUAL 1.7 M, EXPECTED -1.5M, PRIOR -1.8M
Its a highly Bearish data for crude. The Actual Inventory change has come positive 1.7M, where negative 1.5M was expected.
I got panicked & yelled SELL.

The chart shows the time when data came out...At 8.00 p.m. when data arrived, Crude was trading at 76.84$
Within the next 20 mins Crude made a low of 76.22$and then started rallying
By next 1 hour Crude was above the level where it was when data came out & kept rallying further & made a days high close to 78$.

The argument here could be that "News is already factored in"...
But if a Bearish Data was to be 'factored in' in advance , the trend should had been down before the data arrived not up.
The chart shows a trend in Crude which is UP.

News will have effect on the prices only momentarily. Don't be deceived my them...
Bottom line is " If you want to make trading decisions based on Technical Analysis, TRUST YOUR CHARTS, & DO HELL WITH THE NEWS "

SENSEX,DOW,S&P- ALL BELOW 200 DMA

In my last update I said " All in all, Dollar would be the winner appreciating against other currencies which means extreme pressure on Commodities & Equities soon".

Currencies have moved well as expected. EURO has made an 18 months low. Doller Index has zoomed up to an high above 87. USDINR has zoomed above 47 today. Commodities like CRUDE & all METALS have seen the pressure. All major Equity Indices are below their 200 DMA. We may well be at the onset of a major trend reversal in Equities.

Sensex has a good support at 16000 levels. We can expect a minor pullback from this level. But below this a major correction awaits.

EURO, GBP , DOLLAR, INR

Currencies, play an important role while doing InterMarket Analysis.
FTSE, DOW, S&P, NASDAQ all made a new intermediate high. Could India follow suit?Quite possible....We need to wait & watch...

Dollar Index, the much talked about index in the Media these days is getting more than the required attention...Obviously when everybody starts looking at it, the correlation is likely to not work... Markets will change the directions when it has convinced everyone that the opposite it most probable...

Euro (EUR-USD), the currency having the greatest weight in the Dollar index, have a direct correlation with Commodities. Lately Euro has been going sideways, but Gold, Silver & other commodities has shown quite a good strength.Euro was actually in its wave 4 and should soon start its wave 5 depreciating it against dollar.

Pound(GBP-USD), in its wave IV of 3, should soon start it wave V, depreciating against dollar. It could all the way down below 1.35.

Euro against Pound still looks bullish and Euro should appreciate against pound, making new highs.

USD-INR, fell sharply last week, but should hold on here and start its wave 3 upwards, Depreciating against Dollar.

Dollar Index, now finishing its wave 4, should start its upward journey, gaining lot of strength ahead. All in all, Dollar would be the winner appreciating against other curreny which means extreme pressure on Commodities & Equities soon.

Can Employement Ratio Form Patterns?

Below is the chart of S&P(Red) alongwith the US Employement ratio(Blue) since 1962. What we can clearly see is the formation of a Head & Shoulder pattern since 1987. Though the pattern formation has taken many years, its peculiarity is to notice the sharp fall on the break of the neckline. Below 62.5 % you knew where the US Employement Ratio is heading to...

Dollar Index!!! Strength Ahead

Dollar index would start its wave 3 on the upside. Commodities & Equities have already shown the effect on rising dollar. The Head & Shoulder at the bottom also has a target of 81 levels

GOLD...Moving as Expected

Gold has resumed its downward trend after the x-wave retraced between the 50-61.8% region of wave w. The equality of w& y gives the target of 1020. This is the same target for the Head & Shoulder formation at the top.