SILVER AT NEW HIGH !!!! ANTICIPATED & HAPPENED

Our last update predicted silver to rally & make a new high after it gave a breakout of a traingular formation. Silver has breached its previous high & confirmed a new high.
Thats how swift & precise moves are given when a traingle is broken on any commodity chart. Last leg rallies in commodities are always extended.
People who were trying to short silver, anticipating it to top out, have been eventually helping prices rally more everytime they got stopped out.
Rupee Apreciation restricted prices in MCX levels to rally more, but have still managed to surpass 32500, much more above our targets.

A fresh buy here is definitely not advisable.Go short only on some signs of reversals. Silver prices should take some break here from its one sided rally and correct a bit. A break of the rising trendline should confirm a start of the correction.

SILVER !!!!! POISED FOR AN NEW HIGH ?

Silver (COMEX) has given a bullish breakout from a triangular consolidation.
RSI and MACD is also giving a conformation of this breakout.
Silver could very well test its previous highs of 20.4$.
In MCX levels the targets are 31500/31900.
A break below 17.3$ in Silver COMEX would negate this Bullish view on Silver.

How News Could be Deceptive for Trading.....(CRUDE)

News could always be deceptive for a Technical Analyst, who makes decision only based on his charts.

Above is a 15 min chart of Crude. What can clearly be seen is a Triangle Pattern with a break on the upside.
It also has a classic trendline retest. The target according to this triangle breakout is 79.20$
So all I knew was that Crude should take support at 76 & move towards achieving its target of 79.20$

Now comes the interesting part
Every Wednesday Energy Information Administration comes out with Crude inventory data at 8.00 p.m IST.
Its a high Drama event and traders wait as Data comes out because Crude moves like anything before & after this Data is public.

At 8.00 p.m. today Data for Crude Inventory was out as ==> ACTUAL 1.7 M, EXPECTED -1.5M, PRIOR -1.8M
Its a highly Bearish data for crude. The Actual Inventory change has come positive 1.7M, where negative 1.5M was expected.
I got panicked & yelled SELL.

The chart shows the time when data came out...At 8.00 p.m. when data arrived, Crude was trading at 76.84$
Within the next 20 mins Crude made a low of 76.22$and then started rallying
By next 1 hour Crude was above the level where it was when data came out & kept rallying further & made a days high close to 78$.

The argument here could be that "News is already factored in"...
But if a Bearish Data was to be 'factored in' in advance , the trend should had been down before the data arrived not up.
The chart shows a trend in Crude which is UP.

News will have effect on the prices only momentarily. Don't be deceived my them...
Bottom line is " If you want to make trading decisions based on Technical Analysis, TRUST YOUR CHARTS, & DO HELL WITH THE NEWS "

SENSEX,DOW,S&P- ALL BELOW 200 DMA

In my last update I said " All in all, Dollar would be the winner appreciating against other currencies which means extreme pressure on Commodities & Equities soon".

Currencies have moved well as expected. EURO has made an 18 months low. Doller Index has zoomed up to an high above 87. USDINR has zoomed above 47 today. Commodities like CRUDE & all METALS have seen the pressure. All major Equity Indices are below their 200 DMA. We may well be at the onset of a major trend reversal in Equities.

Sensex has a good support at 16000 levels. We can expect a minor pullback from this level. But below this a major correction awaits.

EURO, GBP , DOLLAR, INR

Currencies, play an important role while doing InterMarket Analysis.
FTSE, DOW, S&P, NASDAQ all made a new intermediate high. Could India follow suit?Quite possible....We need to wait & watch...

Dollar Index, the much talked about index in the Media these days is getting more than the required attention...Obviously when everybody starts looking at it, the correlation is likely to not work... Markets will change the directions when it has convinced everyone that the opposite it most probable...

Euro (EUR-USD), the currency having the greatest weight in the Dollar index, have a direct correlation with Commodities. Lately Euro has been going sideways, but Gold, Silver & other commodities has shown quite a good strength.Euro was actually in its wave 4 and should soon start its wave 5 depreciating it against dollar.

Pound(GBP-USD), in its wave IV of 3, should soon start it wave V, depreciating against dollar. It could all the way down below 1.35.

Euro against Pound still looks bullish and Euro should appreciate against pound, making new highs.

USD-INR, fell sharply last week, but should hold on here and start its wave 3 upwards, Depreciating against Dollar.

Dollar Index, now finishing its wave 4, should start its upward journey, gaining lot of strength ahead. All in all, Dollar would be the winner appreciating against other curreny which means extreme pressure on Commodities & Equities soon.

Can Employement Ratio Form Patterns?

Below is the chart of S&P(Red) alongwith the US Employement ratio(Blue) since 1962. What we can clearly see is the formation of a Head & Shoulder pattern since 1987. Though the pattern formation has taken many years, its peculiarity is to notice the sharp fall on the break of the neckline. Below 62.5 % you knew where the US Employement Ratio is heading to...

Dollar Index!!! Strength Ahead

Dollar index would start its wave 3 on the upside. Commodities & Equities have already shown the effect on rising dollar. The Head & Shoulder at the bottom also has a target of 81 levels

GOLD...Moving as Expected

Gold has resumed its downward trend after the x-wave retraced between the 50-61.8% region of wave w. The equality of w& y gives the target of 1020. This is the same target for the Head & Shoulder formation at the top.

Do What the Market Tells you !!!! GO LONG

The price action of the last 2 trading days has kept all the Bears Dazzled. Let us look what these 2 day price action has offered us in the NIFTY charts::

- A 52 week High Closing ( Both on Weekly & Daily charts)
- An inside bar at the intermediate lows
- Increase in Volumes
- An Intraday high breaking the past high of 5182

All these bullish signals definitely force a trader to be long. Sensex is yet to confirm a new high. After doing so we have a target of 18500 for Sensex with wave 5 extension. Next few days price action will definitely confirm the trend. But for the time being dont even dare to go short.

Sensex 2008 Correction- A perfect Double ZigZag

According to the Elliott Patterns, Sensex made an exact Double ZigZag pattern in its recent 2008 major correction from 21206 to 7697. Its an A-B-C-X-A-B-C pattern with each A & C with 5 waves & all B & X with 3 waves. We can see that each B is 61.8% of its corresponding A and also X has retraces 50% of W. The pic alongside the chart gives the textbook daigram of a Double Zig-zag just to show how exactly the markets draw these patterns for itself.

The Magic of a 17 year Channel

When I see this 17 year Channel for Ambuja Cement, I really wonder how does market sense to change its direction when they exactly kiss these trendlines...The trendlines has held all the major tops & major bottoms in this period...Apart from the outer channel, the parallel middleline almost equidistant from the channel trendlines has also given major turning points...

Sensex!!! Finding Direction..

Sensex is hovering around its October top where NIFTY made an exact double top on Friday. 17500 is the key level now, above which we would have to change our count & Sensex would be in the 3 of wave (5). The targets would then be given by the uppper trendline of the channel. Also the equality of wave 1 & 5 would then suggets a target around 18500 levels. But this all happens if Sensex breaks the Oct high of 17500. Failing to do so, we still maintain our targets of 13500 for Sensex.

Dollar Index!!! On the verge on Channel Breakout?

The Dollar index rose sharply on Friday touching 76. It has already breaken the short term(blue colour) channel, which it had already done a couple of times before.Hence we would still wait for the upper channel breakout(yellow colour). A break above that & we should see sharp moves on the upside...

Dollar!!!! Finding its way for U-TURN

The Dollar index,a measure of Dollar against 6 major currencies has been trying to find its bottom since quiet a long time now...Currently at 75.73 after making a recent low of 74.75, dollar will soon have to start appreciating. This would put pressure on commodities & stocks. It is in its 5th of wave C down. Hence the move up in dollar now will be quiet substantial and sustainable. The recent 5th wave move down has been in a trend channel & dollar needs to break this channel on the upside to confirm the uptrend. On the downside dollar should not go below 71, else we have to relook at the bullish view on Dollar index.

Sensex....The Much Awaited Correction

Elliott wave suggested a target of 17150-17500 for Sensex for the Wave 5 which I posted on 20th Sept on the blog. Sensex made a high of 17457.26 on 20th Oct. The trend is down now and according to Elliott wave analysis wave (2) should get us back to atleast the 4th wave of the previous wave (1). This gives sensex a target of atleast 13500. But if that is broken too Sensex could retrace 50% or even 61.8% of the entire move since Mar’09 to gives targets of 12500 levels. Let’s wait and watch...

Its all about FOCUS...

यास्तविंडरियाणी मनसा नियामे राभाते अर्जुना
कर्मेन्द्रिय कर्म योगमा सस्तासा वशीस्यते
This is a shokla from the famous Bhagvad Gita's Karma Yoga chapter. It beautiully explains the concept of control, energy & focus together.And that is what tempted me to write about the sholka from which i get immense energy.
Krishna explaination to Arjuna need not necessarily apply in todays world. But the greatest epic always have powerful messages. Lets try to understand the message in the context of today world. Karma is your work, your responsibilites, your duties. For eg. Studying is the karma of a student. Now if you understand what is Karma, the next thing to understans is Energy. The universal Law => "Energy is neither created nor destroyed, it can just be converted from one source to another".We had studied this law in our school days, but it has much more greater implications than its simplicity. Each one of us have an immense amount of Energy within us. When you fall prey to unwanted, unimportant things in life you waste a lot of energy within you. Krishna advices Arjuna to control his senses from the outside world’s materialistic desires . By doing so you save a lot of Energy. Now the question is what do u do by saving this energy. And the answer in this shloka is that you have to channelize your energies in the right direction; towards your karma. But in today’s world being focus on just 1 specific Karma is difficult. But still the underlying messages remains intact. “ Dont let your energies get wasted in useless & unwanted desires in life & channelize all your focus towards your goal & your sure to succeed”

SENSEX......

MY ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS FOR SENSEX

Sensex could well finish the expanding daigonal. This gives sensex a target of 17150-17500 on upside and then correct down to 13500 levels